NW Bristol via Live Cam at 1:50pm

The snow/mix line will being to make significant northward movement by 5pm. This is when  inland areas will see a transition from snow to sleet. The southern four counties will see plain rain as we head through this evening and overnight.

The precipitation will continue through tomorrow morning. I expect an icy mix of sleet and freezing rain in the hills west and east of Hartford. Basically, all of Litchfield, western Hartford, Tolland and Windham counties will see the icy mix. While areas on the CT/MA border will likely change to sleet around dinnertime this evening just as the rest on inland Connecticut does, these areas stand the best chance of changing back over to all snow around 2am. The river valley from Middletown to Hartford will see plain rain for the most part overnight, with a chance that the icy mix recedes southward into these areas by morning.

The steady precipitation should be gone to our east by 7am tomorrow. Throughout the day, colder air moves in and any remaining snow/sleet/rain showers transition over to snow showers.

Here is what I expect when it comes to snowfall totals.

Expected Total Snowfall (by noon Thursday)

With such snowmaking firepower and Ski Sundown’s ability to create impressive early-season conditions, why are there no crowds? Why are lifelines non-existent? I visited the ski area on January 4, 2012 and have the details in the video below.

One thing I always enjoy are the awesome sunsets. The Green Mountains provide a very picturesque scene. Summer or winter, the view is always second to none.

Enjoy these pictures I took this afternoon.

Until then, enjoy these photos from Cabot, Vermont. I’m up here visiting family. Normally, winter visits feature a good amount of snowmobiling. This year, especially after last night’s rain storm, adequate snow is hard to find. Grass dominates the fields that normally lie under snow drifts that are several feet high. Tonight, I ran into a pleasant surprise while in town! A moderate snow shower was blanketing the road. Thank the northwest wind and the Green Mountains!

CL&P Tweet

CL&P issued a tweet shortly thereafter to say the map had come back online – and that more detail had been incorporated into the map’s color scale.

CL&P Tweet

But was it wise to change the color scale on the power outage map during this major disaster? This change is confusing. It added more colors to an already cluttered map. I know, you could’ve simply looked at the table of outage numbers and seen that little had changed in the 30 minute time span – literally. But, most of the blacks, indicative of towns that had 81%-100% of customers without power, disappeared. Now, only towns meeting a stricter criteria are shaded with black. Your town must have 91%-100% of customers without power to be shaded black. This wiped most of the black off of the map. Good, right? Well, it gives a false impression to those who constantly check the map for progress without looking at the actual numbers or scale each time they visit the site.

Perhaps it would have been wise to add more detail before the storm hit.

CL&P Outage Map as of 1:50am Sunday

CL&P Outage Map as of 8pm Saturday

Snow continues to fall heavily across the state. Winds are extremely gusty near the shoreline. An updated accumulation map can be seen below.

Total Snowfall Accumulation by Noon Sunday

Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for everyone except Southern New London county, where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect.

National Weather Service Advisories, Watches, and Warnings as of 8pm Saturday

Stay tuned to Twitter and Facebook for notification of updates to this weather story.

Expected Total Snow Accumulations by Noon Sunday

Expect the precipitation to begin as rain or a mix of rain and snow between 11am and 2pm Saturday. The precipitation will change over to all snow no later than 5pm. It will increase in intensity through the evening hours. The snow will be very wet in nature (for those who like numbers, the snow-to-liquid ratio will be between 2:1 at the shoreline and 10:1 in the hills of the northwest corner) and stick to nearly everything. I say nearly because I suspect many road surfaces will be slightly above freezing for quite a while. This will translate to more of a wet situation on the roads during the daylight hours. However, during the night, snow will likely begin to accumulate on the roads, especially away from the shoreline. I expect the snow to taper off between 3AM and 6AM Sunday morning.

Total snowfall accumulations will span a large range across the state. Expect a slushy coating to 2″ in extreme Southeast Connecticut. In Southern and Eastern Connecticut, 2″-4″ of heavy, very wet snow will accumulate. It will be laden with water. North and West of Interstate 84, more than 4″ will fall. Some hilly areas will see up to 8″ in these areas (a few local spots: Chippens Hill and South Mountain in Bristol, Wolcott, Burlington, etc.). Once you work into extreme portions of Northwest Connecticut, more than 8″ will fall. Most towns North and West of Torrington lie in this zone. Here, the snow will be less wet in consistency, especially as you head north into the Berkshires.

National Weather Service Advisories, Watches, and Warnings as of 10PM Friday

One major concern is that leaves are still on the trees. Being that the snow will be very pasty in consistency, the leaves will collect snow. Normally, only branches would collect snow. With this added weight, most trees will be very strained. Some will break under the added weight. The potential for catastrophic tree damage and widespread power outages is a real cause for concern. The damage to trees and utility equipment (poles, lines, etc.) may turn out to be comparable to a large ice storm. I will monitor this situation Saturday evening as the snow continues to accumulate.

Stay tuned to Twitter and Facebook for notification of updates to this weather story.

39 Mile Track of the EF3 Tornado

National Weather Service Initial Tornado Warning (Taunton, MA)

On Wednesday afternoon, June 1, 2011, the Storm Prediction Center had a Tornado Watch in effect for most areas in Southern New England. Tornado Warnings quickly ensued, but there was a delay in issuing the warning for the strongest tornado of the day. It touched down in Westfield at 4:17pm. Then, it headed east through the heavily populated Springfield metro area. Without warning. The first tornado warning came out at 4:30pm, which is 13 minutes after the estimated time of touchdown. Westfield, where the tornado touched down, is on the western fringe of NWS Taunton’s county warning area. NWS Albany controls Berkshire County, which is just to the west. With the Berkshire Mountains to the west and Taunton’s radar a far reaching distance to the east, the Doppler radar coverage wasn’t great. It wasn’t possible to see low level data, which is vital to estimating whether or not a tornado is on the ground. Once in view of KBOX (Taunton’s) radar, the warning was issued. Nonetheless, with thousands in it’s path, less than a handfull perished in this nasty twister.

Perhaps one of the most memorial video clips from this tornado is that of WSHM’s Memorial Bridge/Connecticut River aerial view. It can be argued that the video saved lives. When people see an actual live video of the tornado occurring, it puts a greater emphasis on the need to take cover.

WSHM Live City Cam Footage www.CBS3Springfield.com

The National Weather Service has confirmed that  three tornadoes touched down in Massachusetts on June 1st: an EF3 and two EF1 tornados.

The radar below clearly shows the tornado. The supercell located west of Southbridge had both a hook echo and a debris ball. A hook echo is generally a good sign of a potential tornado, while a debris ball is much better. Radar beams reflect off of rain drops and send a signal back to the radar dish. The more it reflects, the brighter the colors you will see. When there is a tornado on the ground, large debris start getting picked up and  begin rotating in the tornado, in the air. The debris is essentially lifted high enough above the ground and into the line of sight of the radar beam. Now, the beam not only reflects off of rain drops, but shingles, couches, and chairs (or whatever else is flying in the air). Hence, bright colors show up in the form of a circle. The bright purple circle, west of Southbridge, is where the EF3 tornado was on the ground at 5:05pm June 1st.

5:05pm Level 2 KOKX Radar with Hook Echo and Debris Ball

On June 5th, I surveyed the heavily damaged towns of Brimfield and Monson, MA. The path of the tornado was very clear. Houses were flattened in some areas. The tornado tore through downtown Monson and continued east towards Brimfield. The popular Brimfield Antiques Grounds were spared, but the path of the twister can be seen on the nearby hillside. The path will be etched in the forest for decades to come, as most of the trees were snapped off near their bases.

Along Interstate 84 near the Sturbridge exit, the tornado ripped across the highway. Signs were toppled. Drivers can look left and right while traveling the road and see the tornado path.

Below is a video report from the tornado ravaged area.

Here is the National Weather Service tornado report for the long track EF3.

...EF3 TORNADO CONFIRMED FROM WESTFIELD TO CHARLTON...

LOCATION...WESTFIELD TO CHARLTON IN HAMPDEN AND WORCESTER COUNTIES
DATE...JUNE 1 2011
ESTIMATED TIME...417 PM TO 527 PM EDT
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF3
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...160 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...ONE HALF MILE
PATH LENGTH...39.0 MILES
BEGINNING LAT/LON...42.10N / 72.75W
ENDING LAT/LON...42.10N / 71.99W
* FATALITIES...4
* INJURIES...200

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN NWS
STORM DATA.

...SUMMARY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON MASSACHUSETTS HAS
CONFIRMED AN EF3 TORNADO FROM WESTFIELD TO CHARLTON MASSACHUSETTS
ON JUNE 1 2011.

A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS STORM STRENGTHENED AND PRODUCED A LONG-
LIVED...VERY SIGNIFICANT TORNADO...THAT DID EXTENSIVE DAMAGE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NOTED NOT ONLY FOR ITS INTENSITY...BUT ALSO FOR
THE LENGTH OF THE CONTINUOUS DAMAGE PATH...APPROXIMATELY 39 MILES.
THE TORNADO WAS ALSO VERY WIDE AT SOME POINTS...REACHING A MAXIMUM
WIDTH OF ONE-HALF MILE.

THE TORNADO FIRST TOUCHED DOWN IN THE MUNGER HILL SECTION OF
WESTFIELD WITH DAMAGE MAINLY LIMITED TO TREES...MANY UPROOTED AND
SNAPPED. THE ROOF OF MUNGER HILL ELEMENTARY SCHOOL WAS ALSO
DAMAGED. THE TORNADO RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AS IT MOVED INTO WEST
SPRINGFIELD. THE TORNADO CAUSED EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO INDUSTRIAL
BUILDINGS AND HOMES. SEVERAL BUILDINGS HAD THEIR ROOFS REMOVED BY
THE TORNADO...A FEW STRUCTURES COLLAPSED...AND SEVERAL MULTI-
STORY BUILDINGS LOST THEIR UPPER STORIES.

THE TORNADO THEN CROSSED THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT THE MEMORIAL
AVENUE BRIDGE AND INTO THE CITY OF SPRINGFIELD. HERE THE TORNADO
PRODUCED EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE DOWNTOWN AREA
WITH MANY HOMES DESTROYED. IN ADDITION COMMERCIAL BRICK BUILDINGS
SUSTAINED MAJOR DAMAGE. ROOFS WERE REMOVED FROM MANY OF THESE
LARGE COMMERCIAL STRUCTURES. THE TORNADO ALSO PRODUCED SEVERE
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO TOWN HOMES AND APARTMENTS NEAR SPRINGFIELD
COLLEGE. THE TORNADO CONTINUED MOVING EAST INTO THE ISLAND POND
SECTION OF SPRINGFIELD...WHERE CATHEDRAL HIGH SCHOOL SUSTAINED
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE...AND MANY HOMES IN THIS PART THE CITY WERE
COMPLETELY DESTROYED.

THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST THROUGH WILBRAHAM NEAR THE
WILBRAHAM-HAMPDEN TOWN LINE PRODUCING NEARLY COMPLETE
DEFORESTATION AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO NEARBY STRUCTURES.

THE TORNADO THEN CONTINUED DIRECTLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
TOWN OF MONSON. IN MONSON WIDESPREAD DAMAGE OCCURRED TO COMMERCIAL
AND RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS...WITH MANY HOMES COMPLETELY DESTROYED.
THE ROOF OF MONSON HIGH SCHOOL WAS DESTROYED. FORESTED PARTS OF
TOWN EXPERIENCED NEARLY COMPLETE DEFORESTATION AND IN SOME
LOCATIONS TREE BARK WAS STRIPPED FROM REMAINING TRUNKS.

THE TORNADO MOVED ACROSS THE BRIMFIELD STATE FOREST WHERE IT
REACHED IT MAXIMUM WIDTH OF APPROXIMATELY ONE-HALF MILE. ADDITIONAL
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE OCCURRED BOTH TO STRUCTURES AND FORESTED AREAS
FOR MANY MILES BEFORE THE TORNADO REACHED THE SOUTHBRIDGE AIRPORT.
HERE NUMEROUS AIRCRAFT WERE LIFTED OFF THE GROUND AND INTO THE
WOODS EAST OF THE AIRPORT.

THE TORNADO THEN MOVED EAST BEFORE LIFTING IN THE SOUTHWEST PART
OF CHARLTON.

Sunset on Bristol's Chippens Hill (5.27.11)

Memorial Day is upon us, and so is the warmth! Mid-summer temperatures and humidity will be the dominating weather this long weekend. Watch the video below for all the details.

Saturday is going to be better than Friday. We will wake up to an awesome sunrise with morning temperatures in the low 50′s. Later in the day, dew points will be between 55 and 60, so expect a bit of humidity in the air. Temperatures will peak around 75 degrees in the afternoon. Get ready for a day that finally feels like early summer! Skies will be partly cloudy and although there is a slight chance for a shower or weak thunderstorm in the afternoon, don’t cancel plans. The chance is minimal.

Sunday will begin with temperatures around 50 degrees. Yes, it will be chilly to start. Skies will be partly cloudy with high temperatures peaking in the upper 60′s. Enjoy your weekend!